Don’t Overthink Origin: Part II
Yesterday, we released the NSW squad analysis and picked our team for Game I. Today’ it’s Queensland’s turn to be placed under the microscope.
Again, same principle, we’ll run through each position group (outside backs, halves, hookers, edge forwards and middles) and cut each group up into fringe guys, bolters, on the cusp and locks.
Let’s get started.
First, a look at our player pool.
Again, I tried to keep it relatively realistic, with a few depth options filling out numbers here. Despite recent questions over his eligibility, Sebastian Kris misses out having represented NSW at U18 level.
Other notable absentees include the horribly out of form and now-dropped Anthony Milford, and the injured Lindsay Collins.
And I’ll address this here as well. No I did not consider Reece Walsh. I’ve seen the media hype. Leave the kid alone. He’ll get chewed up and spat out in Origin so soon. Calm down.
OUTSIDE BACKS
Fringe Guys: Corey Oates, Corey Allan, Phillip Sami, Corey Thompson, Brenko Lee, Edrick Lee, Justin O’Neill
Let’s start with some of the obvious ones first.
Brenko Lee and Justin O’Neill, despite having runs on the board for Queensland, aren’t regular first graders in 2021, while Corey Oates tried a desperate move to the backrow in the offseason in order to secure more money, before returning to the wing and only recently coming back into the Brisbane side.
Corey Thompson is perhaps, somehow, one of the most reliable players in the NRL but at 31 years of age there are better options around.
Phillip Sami has been just one of several disappointments in the Gold Coast side this season. There have been calls for his axing from the side as he’s failed to return to the same level as his last couple of seasons.
Edrick Lee has been injured all season and only now nearing a return to selection for Newcastle.
Perhaps the toughest inclusion in this section is Corey Allan. Despite his heroics last season, the reality is he was the emergency option, and while he is useful in a number of outside back slots, a healthier stable of backs relegate Allan to backup status. Add to that his indifferent form in a terrible Bulldogs side and his case is pretty hard to argue.
Bolters: Hymel Hunt, Kyle Feldt, Tom Opacic
Hymel Hunt is an odd one because he may legitimately be Queensland’s best option to partner Dane Gagai in the centres, despite his ‘bolter’ status. When you look at the guys from last year, Capewell will likely shift back into the pack, Brenko Lee is a reserve grader now, and Corey Allan is in poor form.
In his 7 appearances this season, Hunt has 3 tries, 14 tackle busts and is tackling at 71%. Hardly gaudy numbers but the reality is he might be the best qualified current Queensland centre.
Everything I just used to validate Hymel Hunt can be also used to validate Parramatta’s Tom Opacic. No one thought much of the depth signing from the Eels but Opacic has proven very serviceable in a very good Parra side. While their situations and odds of making the side might be the same, Hunt and Opacic are very different players.
Hunt is the more offensive player, running for over 117 metres a game, but his defence at 71% tackle efficiency is a bit uninspiring, especially in Origin. Opacic doesn’t crack 100 metres a game but his tackling efficiency is much higher, 86%.
While I think the two Queensland wingers pick themselves if healthy, Kyle Feldt is always an option for his potency in the air, goalkicking ability and set-starting runs. Feldt might not be an exciting option but he’s certainly a very safe option, and his familiarity with new coach Paul Green only helps his case.
On The Cusp: AJ Brimson, Xavier Coates
Brimson is a victim of Queensland’s depth because he’s definitely better than fringe or bolter status, but unless they manufacture a spot for him as the bench utility or squeeze him into the centres he’s likely out of a spot. The returning Kalyn Ponga really hurts him here.
Coates is probably as close to a lock without being a lock as you can imagine. His raw game-breaking speed provides that big-play threat Queensland might lack from the other three-quarters, plus his known aerial ability and willingness to take tough carries.
Locks: Kalyn Ponga, Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai
Despite recent quotes from Darren Lockyer about Queensland playing Ponga in the halves (especially with recent news of Munster’s potential injury), Ponga is still the best fullback the north has to offer. He’s a lock, although there’s a non-zero chance he doesn’t play fullback.
Val Holmes and Dane Gagai are just, if you’ll forgive my cliche, “Origin players.” They’ve been there done that, scored a million tries each for Queensland and been there through the most dominant era in State of Origin history. If they’re fit, they’ll be in.
HALVES
Fringe Guys: Corey Norman, Kurt Mann
To be polite to both these guys, they’re here to make the section a bit longer. Both are fine players on their day, but both have the occasional headscratcher in them and neither is particularly close to being in good form right now. Neither is any real threat to play Origin.
Bolters: None
All known quantities in the Queensland halves, and everyone knows where they stand.
On The Cusp: Ben Hunt, Moses Mbye
What you’re looking at here is the likely battle for the Queensland 14 spot. Both guys have played it in the past and both will be firmly in contention for it again this season.
Not much else to say here. Hunt has the edge on form this season both personally and the team, and has the added benefit of being the locked in leader and half at St George, compared to Moses Mbye at the Tigers, who is shuffled from centres to halves and sometimes bench.
Locks: Cameron Munster, Daly Cherry-Evans
Nothing to see here, the Queensland halves pick themselves.
DCE has, along with the returned Tom Trbojevic, completely flipped Manly’s season.
The only question is Munster’s foot injury. If the injury is as serious as feared, we might see Ponga in the halves.
HOOKERS
Much like the NSW hooking battle this is a straight shootout between two men, Reed Mahoney and Harry Grant.
Harry Grant is the better player, brighter prospect and in a better team. He is also, however, injured and in doubt for Game I with a hamstring injury.
Grant won’t play for Melbourne this weekend but is expected to be fit, and if he is fit for Origin, then he assumes his place as Queensland hooker.
Reed Mahoney, unfortunately for him, finds himself in the unenviable position Jake Friend and Matt Ballin found themselves in for 10 years. Stuck behind the best hooker in the game.
MIDDLES
Fringe Guys: Patrick Carrigan, Dunamis Lui, Dylan Napa, Jarrod Wallace, Josh McGuire
To me this list is very uninspiring in 2021.
Pat Carrigan might try hard but he doesn’t bend the lines on any of his runs and his handling is iffy. He lacks any true dynamism to be a modern day State of Origin lock, especially under the current rules.
Dylan Napa, Jarrod Wallace and Josh McGuire have been there in the past but all are having down years and toiling away in relative obscurity. It isn’t a great look for McGuire that his old team started winning when he left, while his new team started losing when he arrived. Napa and Wallace are dime a dozen bench front rowers only included here for past Origin dues.
Dunamis Lui is a bench prop currently, and not an automatic selection in a now dire Canberra team. While he’s a serviceable player, there’s better options.
Bolters: Corey Horsburgh, Thomas Mikaele, Francis Molo
Sometimes you just want a little bit of crazy in your Origin side and there’s no player in the NRL more qualified (except maybe Victor Radley) than Corey Horsburgh. After missing the first 6 weeks of the season he’s played 5 games off the bench and is averaging just under 100 metres a game. Add an 89% tackle rate and he could be a left-field bench middle option.
Tom Mikaele’s situation frustrates me to no end. Here you have a very clearly talented young front rower, perhaps the best middle in your entire pack when you factor in potential, and he’s either a bench forward getting 20 minutes a game, or playing NSW Cup. Since Round 3, he has played more than 30 minutes once.
He only averages 79 running metres but tackles at 98% efficiency, and nearly half of his running metres are post-contact. He is a legitimate Origin bolter.
Molo has split his time between starting and more recently interchange for the Cowboys this season, but is averaging 110 running metres a game, tackles at 94% and just generally gets the job done. He’s generating some serious Origin chat among Queensland circles and definitely wouldn’t look out of place.
On The Cusp: Christian Welch, Joe Ofahengaue, Jai Arrow
Ofahengaue is pedestrian and Welch is extremely reliable, nice traits for an incoming first time Origin coach in Paul Green. Welch gets through a tremendous amount of work in the Melbourne pack while Joe O has had a solid start to his Tigers career. There’s probably room for one of them only.
Arrow would be a lock if he wasn’t coming off the bench regularly for South Sydney, but he’s still pretty much a lock. Souths worrying form of late makes the entire team look undesirable but Arrow has proven Origin qualities.
Locks: Moeaki Fotuaika, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Josh Papalii
Two Gold Coast Titans. Two future stars of Queensland Origin sides.
Tino has made an indifferent start on the Gold Coast according to the eye test and team record but his numbers are still good. He’s still running for 136 metres a game and has made 20 tackle breaks. He’s put the offload away somewhat, only 3 on the season, while his main defect is his defence at only 85% tackle efficiency. While that might be a worry for most, Tino offers enough that you live with that and put guys around him.
MoFo is a genuine star front rower in the NRL and I won’t hear otherwise. 145 metres a game, 28 tackle breaks, 18 offloads and a 91.5% tackle efficiency, the fact he sometimes comes off the bench is malpractice from Justin Holbrook. Jarrod Wallace starts over him. I’m furious.
Papalii is suspended for Game I after being sent off at Magic Round, and one of these forwards will be keeping the seat warm for him to return in Game II. He’s the best forward in Queensland’s pack, an obvious selection when fit.
EDGE FORWARDS
Fringe Guys: Keegan Hipgrave, Coen Hess
Not too much to say here. Hipgrave has the Horsburg qualities of being a bit unhinged, but isn’t a regular first grader and not worth considering for Origin for several reasons both disciplinary and skill-based. But if you need an enforcer, he’s qualified.
Hess is an Origin stalwart of yesteryear but his best days are very clearly gone. Lacks punch in his runs and just looks like he’s going through the motions. Loyalty from Paul Green probably his best hope.
Bolters: Josh Kerr
I don’t necessarily think Kerr is any worse or hidden than the guys coming up but he probably has a tougher road to Origin selection. Kerr isn’t the dynamic ball running threat you’d typically look for in an Origin back rower. He’s averaging a hair over 90 metres running a game, despite playing 80 minutes or more 6 times and never less than 50 save for one interchange appearance.
On The Cusp: Kurt Capewell, Jaydn Su’A
Capewell was one of Queensland’s many heroes last year playing out of position in the centres, but a returning stable sees his path to a spot in the side somewhat more convoluted. His regular starting spot in one of the most dominant regular season sides of all time helps his cause, but in a vacuum he’s solid if unspectacular.
Su’A seems to have this reputation as a big hitter and wrecking ball runner but his numbers have been down this year. A regular 80 min player for Souths, he’s only averaging 87 running metres a game, has 8 offloads on the year and just the one try.
Neither Su’A or Capewell are particularly demanding selection based on the numbers, so this seems destined for a battle for a bench spot.
Locks: David Fifita, Felise Kaufusi
This is the starting back row if fit, no questions asked.
Fifita has, when playing for Gold Coast, been the terrorising force everyone expected when he moved from Brisbane for big money. His tendency to fade in and out of games is alarming but at only 20 still, you get him in the side and ask questions later. Perhaps the only forward Queensland have with the ability to create something out of less than nothing.
Put it this way, second rowers aren’t known for averaging exorbitant running metres like middle forwards are. Su’A and Capewell, for example, average 87 and 92 metres respectively. Kaufusi, widely considered one of the best back rowers in the game over the last few years, averages 98. Fifita is at 140, with 24 offloads to boot. He’s a genuine cheat code if used properly.
Kaufusi has been there for years, performed well in Origin and has shown no dips in form this season despite a very questionable elbow to the head of Ryan Matterson that saw him suspended. A walk up starter.
OUR GAME I TEAM
With all the analysis and looking at the player pool, if I was a Queensland selector, this is the side I’d pick for Game I in Melbourne.
A couple of things on this, there were a few “decisions” I was wrestling with.
The first was the other centre beside Dane Gagai. Eventually I went with Hymel Hunt over Tom Opacic. I trust Hunt’s ability and more elongated period of consistent first grade football over any potential Opacic mirage this season in a great Parramatta side.
The other obvious grapple was the collection of middle forwards I went with. I think Arrow and Fotuaika is a nice mix of aggression and experience up front, while you have the skill of Molo and the reliability of Welch.
I was seriously considering Tom Mikaele, but his lack of game time (sort it out Madge) eventually came home to bite. In the interest of full disclosure, he was in my first draft team, but averaging about 25 mins a game (not fact checked) is a tough sell for an Origin player.
Christian Welch on the bench but many Queensland fans I’ve spoken to think he’ll start so there’s that. He’s the sort of guy you need in Origin to do everything and not let the team down. He might not be flashy but he’s damn important.
Capewell over Su’A based on general form was the other semi-tough choice. I don’t think Su’A has done enough to earn an Origin jersey, and Capewell provides the added versatility of being able to cover the backline if absolutely necessary.
I’ve included Brimson as the 18th man as a standby for Munster. If Munster ends up being injured for Game I, I’d probably opt to shift Ponga into the halves and bring Brimson in at fullback. Especially if my alternatives are handing Origin starts to Corey Norman or Kurt Mann.
That concludes our Origin squad preview series. This two part look ahead analysed the depth in both squads and proceeded to select the Game I side for each state.
There are probably differences between my squad and yours, feel free to send me hate messages over on my Twitter.
