The Ben Simmons Conundrum
A lot has been written about Ben Simmons over the last 6 hours or so. Fresh off a disappointing Game 7 showing against the Atlanta Hawks, the Philadelphia 76ers are now eliminated…again.
It caps off a lean trot for the self-appointed Process Sixers. Since Sam Hinkie started the famous mantra back in 2013, the Sixers have gone from openly tanking to a number one seed in the Eastern Conference.
While Hinkie is no longer with the team, his fingerprints are all over the franchise, namely in the form of 7’2” center Joel Embiid, affectionately nicknamed “The Process” by fans and media alike.
When we talk about the “process” in Philadelphia, it all leads back to one road. That of Joel Embiid, one of the most offensively talented, unique centers the NBA has seen in the last 20 years. Embiid is punishing with his size, but fluid and nimble, and has an array of post moves that would make even the most ardent supporter of post-heavy 80s basketball blush.
That’s why it’s so important for the team to give Embiid the room and personnel around him to succeed, which draws us back to the original question posed in the headline. The conundrum of Ben Simmons.
When Ben Simmons came into the league in 2017 (after missing his true rookie season with a foot injury), he was viewed as the new age of point guard. At 6’10”, his size drew immediate, if not lazy, comparisons to Magic Johnson. Add to that his immediate skill in passing and defense, while possessing minimal shooting range, it was almost predetermined he’d be measured alongside the Lakers legend.
Simmons came into the league burning hot. In his rookie season he averaged 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game while shooting 54.5% from the field, in 33.7 minutes a game over 81 contests. If we filter all rookies in NBA history by averages of 15-8-8-50% FG, we get one name on the list.
Ben Simmons.
Then consider this. Let’s knock off one rebound, one assist and three points off the filter, keeping the FG% at 50. That gives us filters of 12ppg-7rpg-7apg-50% FG for rookies. We get two names on the list.
Ben Simmons
Magic Johnson (18 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 53% FG).
Ben Simmons is a unique force of nature. Franchises dream of a point guard with his size capable of filling up the box score like that. This doesn’t even take into account his steal and block numbers, also in the upper echelon for “point guards” in the NBA.
We know Ben Simmons is a point guard unicorn. That makes this next bit so disappointing.
How often do you have a 6’10” point guard that averages 15-8-8 that is a detriment to their team when it matters most, in the postseason? You could probably count the examples on one hand and have fingers left over.
The unfortunate fact is Ben Simmons is a detriment to this Philadelphia 76ers team, and a separation is the obvious, and only, resolution.
This isn’t necessarily a knock on Simmons (although there are some fatal flaws in his game he needs to address before he can seriously be considered anything more than a mirage being chased by desperate GMs saving their jobs with splashy trade acquisitions).
The fact is, as currently constructed, Ben Simmons breaks the Philadelphia 76ers.
Let’s circle back to our glowing endorsement of Joel Embiid. If we read out his averages for this season, you’d be forgiven for thinking we’re talking about our created player in NBA 2K with the sliders turned up.
28.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1 steal, 51.3% FG, 37.7% 3PT, 85.9% FT in 31.1 minutes per game, all while being 7’2” and about 270 pounds. Put simply he’s an guardable behemoth, the ultimate embodiment of “pick your poison.”
That’s what makes the forced mismatch between Simmons and Embiid so odd. Embiid needs his space to operate, and with Simmons you have effectively the worst shooter at the position. You have non-threats from distance, and you have Ben Simmons.
Ben Simmons has taken 34 three pointers in his career, making a measly five. Basketball Reference tracks heaves (shots launched at the end of a shot clock or quarter with time expiring), and Simmons has 10. That means he’s only taken 24 legitimate, deliberate, three pointers in his four years in the league.
That refusal to extend his game to become even a marginal threat from the outside is what allows teams to absolutely ignore him to double Embiid. You can’t hide a bad defender on Simmons because of his athletic ability, but you sure as hell can sag off him and have the help defenders play drop coverage and rotate weak side.
There seems to be this misconception among fans that players absolutely need to have a three point shot to be effective. I’d argue that it depends on the role you’re being asked to play. For example, the Pistons let Andre Drummond experiment with taking threes a couple of years ago. It was an unmitigated disaster, and it took his focus away from the areas of his game he was legitimately effective.
So when people say Simmons needs to develop a three point shot, I don’t disagree entirely, but I’d word it differently. He doesn’t need a three point shot, he needs a cure to his three point allergy. It doesn’t help anyone when the ball is rotated to you with no one within cooee, with 5 seconds left on the shot clock, only to turn down a three. Averaging one legitimate (non heave) three point attempt every 11.45 games (24 attempts/275 games) is borderline malpractice.
No one is saying he needs to come out and launch six threes a game. But if he’s going to flat out refuse to take the widest of wide open ones, then we need to re-evaluate his role in the modern NBA.
The worrying trend is that his refusal to shoot threes appears to have translated and morphed into a refusal to shoot at all. Take a look at this graphic from Stat Muse.
3 field goal attempts throughout all fourth quarters in an entire Conference Finals series is not great in anyone’s language. Psychologically it gives off all the wrong signals. Not only do you appear to not want the responsibility of the moment, you signal lack of trust in your own game, a willingness to be carried, and you even tell the defense that they don’t need to bother guarding you.
The worst example is here, when Simmons passes up a wide open dunk to dish to a cutting, and covered, Matisse Thybulle, who, given his own free throw shooting woes, is predictably hacked.
This passive mentality is something that cannot continue, and as mentioned above, could lead to a re-examination of his place in the modern NBA, which begs the question, where to next for Simmons?
What should be obvious is the Simmons and Sixers are heading for divorce. Embiid and Simmons don’t fit, that much is plain and clear for everyone to see. The question is what is Simmons role and where does he go?
After a disaster series (and playoffs) for Simmons, his trade market is going to be as rock bottom as a 24 year old 3-time All-Star and 2-time All-Defensive player can have. Add to that the fact that, due to Simmons’ post-rookie extension with Philadelphia, he’s owed approximately $146 million USD over the next four seasons. In short, a sunk cost that’s going to be borderline impossible to trade, at least for any sort of return value.
When examining his fit around the league, it really depends on how you want to use Simmons. The early favourite appears to be Portland in some sort of agreement for CJ McCollum. Pairing Simmons with Damian Lillard allows both guys to mix it up playing on and off ball, while in Portland he’d also have screen and roll/pop threats in Enes Kanter and Zach Collins.
In my opinion, one of the main reasons Simmons and Embiid haven’t worked is Simmons’ efficacy in the pick and roll not matching well with Embiid’s tendency to work in isolation and post up settings. In such scenarios, Simmons is relegated to spot up duty, something that we all know is, um, not his forte, to put it politely.
A short disclaimer before we continue, I’m not considering financial constraints or team interest, I’m just throwing out situations I think Simmons could excel in.
Another potential destination I really like for Simmons is the Utah Jazz. Of course, all of this is predicated on the other team being interested in acquiring his services, which might be a tougher sell than most, but if you can pair Simmons with Donovan Mitchell and Gobert you have the making of an already-elite defense combining with a mystery offense. Gobert doesn’t need the ball, working well as a roll man and lob threat, while Mitchell is effective both on and off ball.
Of course, a pairing in Utah or Portland assumes Simmons is still viewed as a point guard in the modern NBA. With his lack of shooting, there might be a push for Simmons to remodel himself as a big man, whether as a center or power forward. Obviously, in today’s pace and space era, he’d need to play with a co-anchor capable of stretching the floor.
Minnesota Timberwolves?
Karl-Anthony Towns is the best offensive big man in the NBA bar none, and regularly lives outside the perimeter on offense, leaving plenty of space and driving lanes for Simmons to work inside. Add the extra layer of familiarity that Simmons has with Towns, as well as former high school teammate D’Angelo Russell, and Minnesota could be a possible destination.
I don’t know what the general feeling around the NBA is for Simmons. Optically, he has the reputation of minimal improvement or growth in his tenure in the league, and is rapidly approaching wasted potential territory. A summer around veterans and coaches that care about him at the Australian national team could be the kick start he needs, but the marriage in Philly is dead.
The question now is what is Simmons place in the league going forward. Is he the statsheet-stuffing point forward he was drafted to be, or does he pivot into a more traditional big man role with another star point guard? Whatever the answer, it’s going to be a tough ask for Philadelphia to get off that contract given his value, and therein lies the Ben Simmons Conundrum.
