Don’t Overthink Origin: Part I
State of Origin is only a few short weeks away, and with the teams set to be announced this weekend, what better way to build up than with a two part series where I play selector.
NSW have a lot to play for this season. After being thoroughly pantsed in last year’s series by the “worst Queensland team ever”, this is a chance for redemption for several Origin fizzlers, a time to prove they have what it takes to shine on the big stage.
First, I went through and crafted a squad of several guys. In this squad are guys who I’d consider “in the conversation” for a Blues jersey. For some, the conversation will be shorter than for others, but a conversation nonetheless.
Thus, the squad.
A pretty deep pool if you ask me. Several guys with Origin experience likely won’t make the squad proper entirely.
We’re going to break down each category into fringe guys, bolters, on the cusp and locks.
Let’s go through it by category, starting with the outside backs.
OUTSIDE BACKS
FRINGE GUYS: Blake Ferguson, Campbell Graham, Kotoni Staggs, Jack Bird, Josh Morris, Matt Burton, Alex Johnston, Bradman Best, Nick Cotric.
So here’s the thing with this group. It’s a pretty useful stable of outside backs and it says a lot about NSW’s depth at the position that they’re likely not even in with a sniff.
Blake Ferguson has incumbency and the support of the current regime on his side but no one could seriously pick him right now. He’s been an obvious weak spot in an otherwise brilliant Parramatta side, with his handling and poor defensive reads showing up.
Josh Morris is technically retired from Origin, but you know if he was called up in desperate times he’d absolutely do the job. Likely won’t be needed this time around.
Jack Bird I’ve included in here mainly because the NRL media seems to be pushing this narrative that he’s deserving of legitimate consideration. He’s been ok, in a pedestrian Dragons side. He’s not even the best NSW centre at the club.
Alex Johnston and Nick Cotric are both solid, if a little one-dimensional. With Johnston, you have one of the most supreme finishers in the game, while Cotric is an elite yardage winger. Both have gaping flaws that would be brutally exposed in Origin.
Matt Burton is playing out of position for Penrith, and has done brilliantly. Still, I don’t think you could convince me he’s anything more than the ultimate bolter, so fringe status it is. Still, Freddy loves shoehorning playmakers in anywhere, so don’t rule it out.
Graham, Staggs and Best are all future Origin quality players but probably find themselves slightly the victim of NSW’s depth (and injury in Staggs case). Were it not the need for NSW to find spots for some other guys coming up, Best and Graham in particular would be making more noise.
BOLTERS: Stephen Crichton, Zac Lomax
Crichton and Lomax are quite possibly the two best young centres in the game. Both incredibly rangy and with effortless, fluid athleticism, they both have the ability to create overlaps and mismatches, and both excel in one on one situations.
What’s more, both currently play on the right for their club sides, typically the harder centre position to play and find good talent in. Both have also filled in at fullback, and both are viable goal kicking options.
Lomax will miss Origin I with injury, and Crichton’s case probably isn’t as strong as it was last year, but his team success brings him up from fringe status.
ON THE CUSP: Daniel Tupou, Brian To’o, Clint Gutherson, Ryan Papenhuyzen
For many Origin observers, the main question in the NSW backline is who will take the other wing spot alongside Josh Addo-Carr, with the battle seemingly coming down to Roosters skyscraper Daniel Tupou, and Panthers battering ram Brian To’o.
Both offer completely alternative game styles. For Tupou, at 1.96m, he provides a daunting aerial presence at both ends of the park, and is still a very good yardage winger.
On the other side, yardage is all you get with Brian To’o. Averaging a ridiculous 241 running metres a game, not only is he a serial tackle buster, he also has developed into an elite finisher, capable of going airborne and underground.
Gutherson has incumbency going for him, but isn’t coming off the greatest of debut series last year. In club land, he’s lead Parramatta to a tremendous start to the season at 9-2, but his Origin value is likely as a utility off the bench, with spots at fullback and centre likely taken.
Papenhuyzen is perhaps the ultimate victim of depth. His likely sniff comes as a bench utility or left field winger. While he’ll definitely be in the squad somewhere, his value is somewhat limited, and you’ll find out my views on bench utilities very soon.
LOCKS: James Tedesco, Josh Addo-Carr, Latrell Mitchell, Tom Trbojevic
Four out of the five in the backline should realistically pick themselves.
Tedesco is the captain of the state and still the best fullback in the game, and has regularly shone at Origin level.
Addo-Carr is quite possibly the perfect winger in the modern game. Devilishly quick, somewhat light framed but uses his power very effectively in yardage sets.
Tom Trbojevic is mounting a serious case to Teddy’s throne as premier fullback in the game. Since his return, Manly have gone from historically bad to potential top four contender. He’ll likely resume his Origin centre spot that he missed last year through injury.
In the other centre spot, people shouldn’t be quick to forget, Latrell Mitchell was the odds on Dally M favourite before a silly suspension ruled him out of that award. Again, he needs to be in the side, and centre isn’t a foreign position to him, having played it at both the Roosters and previously for NSW.
HALVES
Ok lets make this section quick, we don’t need to prattle on here.
FRINGE GUYS: Adam Reynolds
Best kicking game in the comp but not a real chance at Origin thanks to the guy ahead of him.
BOLTERS: None
Look, I seriously considered Luke Brooks for the graphic above but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. I had high hopes for him this year, what a disappointment.
ON THE CUSP: Jarome Luai, Cody Walker, Jack Wighton
Basically, this section is “who will partner Cleary in the halves?”
Jarome Luai is the clubhouse favourite, being Cleary’s club teammate and co-owner of the best record in footy. He’s also second in the league in try assists, behind only, yes, Nathan Cleary. His kicking game, especially short, is among the best in the comp, and he has the much desired, as much as I hate to say it, “X Factor”.
Cody Walker is the incumbent and one of the few Blues who had a positive series last year. Despite a rough recent run of form coinciding with injuries and suspensions at Souths, he’s still firmly a Freddy favourite. It will just be a question of whether Freddy values the club combination.
Considering the Blues depth at centre, and with Jack Wighton playing halves for Canberra, I felt I had to include him here. He looks a prime candidate for the Blues utility spot if they go with one. Remember, Wighton was pressed into action at centre last year without the services of Trbojevic and Mitchell. With both of those guys back, his value diminishes to the team.
LOCKS: Nathan Cleary
The lockiest of locks in this current side. Not only is Cleary the presumed Dally M heir apparent, he’s led Penrith to an 11-0 record, has 15 try assists (league best) and 7 tries, is leading the comp in points (thanks to an 87.5% goal kicking rate), and has forced 11 drop outs.
Where perhaps his knock was his creativity, he has improved in a Penrith juggernaut. Add to that his already rock solid defensive ability and elite kicking game, there’s absolutely no reason not to pick him.
MIDDLE FORWARDS
Fringe Guys: Paul Vaughan, Moses Leota, David Klemmer
Moses Leota is a borderline bolter due to Penrith’s success but realistically I don’t think he goes close to the final squad.
Klemmer and Vaughan have both been there, done that in Origin but their club form this season has been somewhat inconsistent, plus the emergence of other options means Freddy looks elsewhere.
Bolters: Dale Finucane
Hear me out here. Finucane has tenure in Origin and is one of the most reliable guys going around. I still think him being in the team would be somewhat surprising given the other options, but it also wouldn’t surprise me.
Being in the Storm system has been the best thing for Finucane’s career. A proven Origin performer in the Morris brother mould of “don’t let the boys down”, he’ll do the job if called upon.
On The Cusp: Jake Trbojevic, Daniel Saifiti, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Nathan Brown, Isaah Yeo, Victor Radley
3-4 weeks ago and Jake Trbojevic might have been in my fringe guys list. He looked listless and frankly cooked at the start of the season, which makes his resurgence all the more remarkable. It’s likely a product of the Tommy Turbo effect at Manly but it’s elevated him back into his incumbency status.
Brown, Yeo and Radley are all different types of lock that could prove very useful at Origin level. Brown and Yeo both made it there last year, Brown with physicality and Yeo with mobility through the middle. Radley, while not yet an Origin player, is surely knocking down the door (if he isn’t suspended for breaking the hinges).
To me, Brown is slightly behind the other two because what he does can be covered by both. Yeo has the ball playing ability, is a rangy tackle-buster with a dangerous offload, and never misses a tackle. Victor the Inflictor has that crazy that every Origin coach looks for, hits like a missile, and has the versatility to cover anywhere in the pack.
Saifiti and Campbell-Gillard are both fighting it out for bench spots in my Origin side. Saifiti has been a shining light in an often disappointing Newcastle pack, while RCG is uplifted by his Parramatta team performance. Both bend the line and possess offloads, it’s a real pick’em for a bench spot.
LOCKS: Payne Haas, Junior Paulo, Cameron Murray
To me, Haas and Paulo absolutely has to be the starting NSW front row for Game I. Haas is cementing himself as perhaps the best front rower in the game alongside James Fisher-Harris and has the engine to go long stints, which can affect the rest of Freddy’s bench.
Paulo is Parramatta’s most dangerous forward, and quite possibly the most damaging pound-for-pound runner in the NRL. With his unique mix of power and skill, he performed well last Origin series and has only improved.
For lock forward, I still think Cam Murray is the clear choice. His speed through the ruck and ability to generate quick play the balls will prove invaluable for NSW to tire out the Queensland forwards and allow whoever they pick at hooker to roll through the middle.
HOOKERS
Ok let’s be brief here, there’s no fringe guys, no bolters, no locks.
It’s a straight up mano e mano between Apisai Koroisau and Damien Cook.
Over the last few weeks, the calls for Koroisau to replace Cook as NSW hooker have intensified, as Souths have hit a rather turbulent run of form. Those calls deafened into a crescendo on the weekend as Koroisau’s Penrith marched all over Cook’s Rabbitohs to the tune of 56-12 in Dubbo.
I think the conversation is a little more complicated than club form. There is value in incumbency, whether you like it or not, and Cook has been there for NSW and proven to be a valuable piece in winning series.
If you think the forward pack will be able to generate roll on, Cook is the obvious choice as the better runner. However, his running game hasn’t been as potent as years past, and Koroisau has developed his craft and guile with subtle changes to manipulate the ruck.
To be honest, it’s almost dead even. You’ll see who I pick at the end.
EDGE FORWARDS
Fringe Guys: Josh Jackson, Wade Graham, Ryan Matterson, Tariq Sims, Luciano Leilua
I included Jackson and Graham more out of respect than legitimate chance at selection, if I’m being honest.
Tariq Sims and Luciano Leilua have both been very hit and miss this season, with their tendency to drift out of games costing them serious Origin consideration for me.
Ryan Matterson is in the conversation but his injury history and limited time this year caps his potential.
Bolters: Liam Martin, Josh Schuster
Do I think either of these guys gets picked? No
Would I seriously pick either of these guys? No probably not.
But, the media has been pushing this Liam Martin narrative for two years now, and Freddy with his Penrith connections is a known admirer. He has the versatility to play both edge and middle, and with a rising injury list in the NSW forward stocks, he could find himself in contention.
Josh Schuster, if you’ll indulge some urban references, is a straight up baller. Pressed into action on an edge for Manly but naturally a five-eighth, he has some of the silkiest big man hands in the game. His disdain for looking at his passing target is royal, and he generally makes the right reads.
He won’t be in Origin this year but I’m earmarking him as one to watch in years to come.
ON THE CUSP: Tyson Frizell
Frizell has been one of NSW’s consistently best players for several series now, often in losing sides. Somewhat hidden in a lacklustre Newcastle side this season, he might find himself overtaken by new options.
Still, as a proven Origin performer who runs excellent lines at speed, he always has value to Brad Fittler. I just think he’s fighting for a bench spot this year unless things break his way.
LOCKS: Angus Crichton, Tevita Pangai Jr
If this is not the starting NSW backrow (Crichton suspension pending) I will throw my dining room table off my balcony.
TPJ’s in the hottest form I’ve ever seen him in, and is manhandling entire forward packs for fun, getting under the skin of halves and backrowers alike, and making it his personal mission to kill everyone on the other side of the field.
Crichton is somewhat less volatile, but no less damaging. One of the most athletically gifted back rowers in the competition, he runs great lines and has the flair and skill to execute a quick catch and pass. He’s developed into a very complete edge back rower.
MY TEAM
This is what I’d go with for Game 1.
The most obvious thing is I’m only carrying one front rower on the bench, but I think Yeo can cover some middle, plus both Haas and Paulo can go long stints. I’ve also left the door open for Saifiti to come in, likely for his Knights teammate Frizell.
Victor Radley, had he not gone insane vs. Brisbane, would’ve made the side as the 14. Instead, I’ve had to break my own rule of not selecting backs on the bench, but I think Walker is probably the best option once Radley goes down.
Radley was my de facto utility with his ability to play middle and edge, but Walker’s that gamebreaker in the middle NSW could use as the speed of the game fatigues forwards out quicker through the middle. It’s just a question of how much time the utility will actually get.
As for the other choices in the squad, I’ve gone for To’o over Tupou for his carries and finishing ability. I think what also gets lost is To’o is fairly good under the high ball for someone of his short stature.
Luai over Walker was a fairly easy call for me. You can’t break up the most scintillating club halves pairing in the competition, one on a historically successful run of winning games. Cleary and Luai complement each other almost too perfectly, it has to happen.
The only other semi-tough choice was at hooker, and with all things considered I couldn’t really split Cook and Koroisau from a playing perspective. With that in mind, and not wanting to bring in too many new guys, Cook’s incumbency wins out.
The one final question mark is the availability of Angus Crichton through suspension but I’m choosing to believe he’ll be fine.
That’s the NSW Origin primer. I’ll have the Queensland version later in the week right here on Beyond The Fence.
