#RefsFault and Hot Takes: The 2023 NRL Twitter Season Preview
It feels like aeons ago since the Penrith Panthers became the second team in the NRL era to become back to back champions, and the third if we count the 1997-1998 Broncos, but I’m not sure how we view a Super League title. For the record I’m pro Super League, but I digress.
Since that glorious (I’m biased sue me) evening last October we’ve had a World Cup for the ages, with Australia beating a golden Samoan generation in the final, and a near lockout due to dragging collective bargaining agreement negotiations. But footy is back so that never happened.
Now you can’t have the start of the season without a preview, and like last year, we’ve skipped over the boilerplate, cookie-cutter boring stuff here, because quite frankly, asking one man to write a season preview on seventeen teams with the required brevity and nuance is a near-impossible task.
So how do we combat that? By scouring Twitter for the best and the brightest from each fanbase of course.
NRL Twitter is a fascinating place. Hot takes run riot and banter crosses lines, but at the end of the day, we’re all united by the greatest game of all. So who better than to help me write this NRL season preview, than NRL Twitter itself.
I asked a fan from each team to answer a set of questions about their team. Those questions are as follows:
Who was your club’s key gain/signing?
Who was your club’s key loss?
What went right last year?
What went wrong last year?
Who is the next generation that we should look out for?
What is one key question you want answered for this season?
What is your best case scenario this season?
What is your worst case scenario for this season?
Who is your club’s most important player?
Do you have a trial overreaction?
I will credit every person who wrote their team’s section at the top, under the team headline, and leave a link to their Twitter accounts. They are all required follows.
In the interests of full disclosure, I have a confession. Unfortunately due to external reasons our regular contributors for the North Queensland Cowboys (Braden) and New Zealand Warriors (Jason Oliver) were unable to partake this year. I tried my best to scour the internet for a replacement, but after zero luck I’ve had to bite the bullet and take on the role of those teams myself.
I’ve tried to be as fair and reasonable, yet optimistic and one-eyed through the lenses of those teams as possible, but if you’re a fan of those teams and hate my answers, my Twitter DMs are open.
Those contributions will just sarcastically be credited as “Staff Writers.”
Right, lets get to it.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Last season: 9th - Missed Finals, 28pts, -36
Contributor: Liam (pythagoNRL)
Key Signing
Reece Walsh is the only really important signing, presuming you think like I do that Jock Madden has very little to offer other than as a depth play and the potential to be confused with fellow Cup guy, Jack Madden. Walsh fixes a major hole the club has had since Darius Boyd’s body gave up on him about five years ago, and then subsequently him on football.
Key Loss
Tesi Niu is a key loss but not in a bad way. His replacement by Reece Walsh not only markedly improves the team, his absence as a below replacement level fullback means the Broncos could play almost anyone and see an improvement.
It also enables me to really focus on hating Jordan Riki for the next eight months.
What Went Right in 2022?
After starting the season and looking like one of the worst teams in the league again right until half time of round 7, there was an insane purple patch from then until they hit the Storm in round 15. The keys seemed to be Te Maire Martin at fullback and Cory Paix at hooker, which meant the team could function in attack and defence. They even showed a surprising amount of guts, which we haven’t seen for years, like in the game against the Raiders.
For some reason, Walters went away from this demonstrated winning formula, even when he had the availability, and never went back again.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
In addition to bad selections, the cue went into the rack after the win over Parramatta in round 19, which was way too early. A loss to the Tigers the next week should’ve been a warning but was ignored following a cushy win over the Knights.
A 60-10 loss to the Storm, while embarrassingly typical, should have seen someone, anyone, hit the “emergency break glass” but that didn’t happen until after a 53-6 loss to the Eels, which was a 69 point swing in five weeks. By then, it was too late. The Broncos couldn’t find anything in the tank, lost to the Dragons in the final week and missed finals.
The Broncos just needed to turn up for one game to get into the finals and didn’t. Given this was all down to attitude and selections, and not for a lack of talent, and this is supposed to be a strength, I’m laying a lot of blame at the feet of the coach. He had them running red hot and then couldn’t get back there when he needed to.
The Next Generation
Most of the next generation is already here. There’s no exceptionally inspiring talents in the top 30 that people wouldn’t already be vaguely aware of, although we’ll see if Xavier Willison in particular or to a lesser extent, Logan Bayliss or Ethan Quai-Ward have what it takes to step up. More attention should be heaped on Ezra Mam, who is already a certified dude at 20 and now has a season of first grade under his belt.
The biggest hole in the spine, and has been for some time, is at hooker. The coach’s son seems to be incumbent, despite the fact that he’s too slow, woefully overplays his hand and is surprisingly old, but Cory Paix, still only 23, is waiting in the wings after being shoved in the half-to-hooker machine earlier in his career. He has question marks over his defence; for example, “can you please stop letting people run over you?” The longer term prospect is Queensland U19s hooker, Blake Mozer and we’ll see if he gets a run this year.
The Key Question
Whether Kevin Walters is the man for the medium to long term for the club. He’s more than capable of turning a good team into an average one but if he can stop tripping over himself, the Broncos might find their feet again.
Best Case Scenario
The Broncos go on a massive winning streak at home and turn that into a top four finish before a week two or three exit in the finals. Getting all the way from 13-11 last year to the grand final this year seems impossibly far.
Worst Case Scenario
There’s two answers to this question.
One is the team and coaching perform disastrously, either through internal bickering or key injuries or both, and the Broncos finish in the bottom quarter of the ladder. That would mean the end of Walters and a prolongation of the transition.
The other is that the team takes advantage of the bounty of games in SEQ and a reasonably talented bunch of dudes and makes it into the finals and Walters stays on. It’s good to win and it’s good to progress forward and I’d rather that than a tailspin but longer term, it only entrenches Walters and I believe he has to be replaced if the Broncos are ever going to mount a serious tilt at the premiership.
Most Important Player
The answer should probably be Adam Reynolds but I think if the last five games of 2022 are anything to go by, it’s Patty Carrigan. I’d say Carrigan has a better chance of staying on the field this year than Reynolds, so that’s a net plus to help keep them moving down the field.
Trial Overreaction
As a wise man once said, “trial form is shit form”, so I didn’t watch much of the Broncos trials. But did you see St Helens beat Penrith???
Again, thanks to Liam. Follow him on Twitter @pythagoNRL
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Last Season: 8th - Lost Semi Final 40-4 vs. PAR, 30pts, +63
Contributor: Jack Cronin (@jackkcronin)
Key Signing
Genuinely no one. The Raiders have been fairly quiet in the recruitment market in the last couple of seasons but this year more than ever. Their two highest profile signings are journeyman hooker Danny Levi from Huddersfield and bench forward Pasami Saulo from Newcastle. I know I know, I'm struggling to contain my excitement listing those names myself.
Neither of these guys are locks to play in Round 1 and when both were announced, I assumed they were for depth. While not technically a signing, Harley Smith-Shields is back from an ACL injury suffered in the pre-season of last year and the excitement surrounding his return far outweighs that of any of our incoming recruits.
Key Loss
From an emotional standpoint, losing both Josh Hodgson and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in the same season is about as devastating a personnel change as you can get. Both were instrumental in the Raiders most successful period of the NRL era and Hodgson in particular will long be remembered as one of the most important players in Raiders history.
With that said, Hodgson missed all but four minutes of the 2022 season and CNK didn't start a game after round 11, so we've already had a reasonable look into what life at the Raiders will look like without them. Two departures that have barely raised a mention in the media but in my opinion leave a huge hole in the Raiders side are Adam Elliott and Ryan Sutton. Once he settled in at lock alongside Woolford at 9, Elliott was able to provide the width and mobility that the Raiders had so desperately craved in the first half of the season. He got through a mountain of work both with and without the ball and the club doesn't have a ready made replacement to slot into this role in 2023.
Sutton's departure leaves the first choice interchange bench looking incredibly light on and with Emre Guler and Corey Horsburgh continuing to frustrate with their inconsistent form in the trials, it appears as though Sutton's reliability will be sorely missed this season.
What Went Right in 2022?
In the back half of the season, lots!
The Raiders won seven of their last eight to sneak into the finals and then managed to upset the Storm in the first week of the finals to defy any expectations that I had for them. A lot of this momentum came on the back of the form of Joseph Tapine and Hudson Young, while a number of young players managed to make a huge leap as the season progressed, namely Matt Timoko and Sebastian Kris.
On top of this, Ricky Stuart finally managed to find some stability in the spine, with the return of Jamal Fogarty from injury and the emergence of Xavier Savage and Zac Woolford at fullback and hooker. Woolford in particular was a huge find for the club, providing stability in a role that the Raiders were really struggling with following Hodgson's injury. We also saw a much more consistent Jack Wighton in the back half of the season following a rough 18 months following his unexpected Dally M Medal in 2020.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
In the first half of the season, lots!
I had the displeasure of watching the Raiders lose to the Warriors in person at Redcliffe in Round 7 and walked out genuinely believing we would finish last and not make the finals for years to come. Fortunately, we were able to rectify a number of the issues that plagued our first half of the season as the year went on, however it was still a scary glimpse at just how bad this group can be at their worst.
With a tough start to the year again in 2023, featuring three separate road trips to Queensland in the first six rounds, the Raiders will have to be very good to avoid a similar opening to their campaign.
The Next Generation
Harley Smith-Shields debuted in 2020 and already has 9 games of NRL to his name, but having missed the entirety of the 2022 season, he's become out of sight, out of mind with the average fan. I rated him as a better prospect than Timoko heading into last season and I believe that he can have a similar rise to his Kiwi teammate once he finds his feet this season. While not overly big in stature, he's an incredibly strong ball carrier and defender and I think with Savage out for the first 6-8 weeks he will cement his spot in Canberra's first choice backline.
In the forwards, Ata Mariota has established himself as somewhat of a Baby Papalii. With almost identical mannerisms and a matching mullet to boot, it's almost scary at times how similar he looks to Josh when he's on the field. After a very strong season in NSW Cup last season, look to him to add plenty of games to his singular NRL appearance so far.
Key Question
What direction is the club heading towards in Ricky Stuart's 3rd rebuild in his tenure?
In his 10th season as Raiders Head Coach, Ricky Stuart is what I would describe as halfway through the third rebuild of his tenure. While many coaches only get the chance at one rebuild at a club, Ricky is once again trying to put together a side that can genuinely contend for that elusive fourth premiership. After a very strong finish to last season with a fairly young side, optimism is high amongst Raiders fans that they can carry that momentum into another push towards the finals. With just one period of consecutive finals appearances in his entire decade with the club (2019-2020), the pressure should be on Stuart to prove that he is the right man to take this roster to the next level.
Best Case Scenario
With a really soft run home and a promising roster, there is a world in which this Raiders side can really go on a run towards the edge of the top four. Xavier Savage looked to have bulked up significantly over the summer, Wighton and Fogarty have had an uninterrupted pre-season together and the sky is the limit for guys like Hudson Young, Matthew Timoko and Harley Smith-Shields. While I don't think they can quite match it with the very best of the best, I think if everything goes right, the Raiders could find themselves in 4th or 5th and primed for a big run in the finals.
Worst Case Scenario
The spine can't stay healthy, the departures in the forwards can't be adequately filled and the tough start to the season leads to unrest in the playing group and a spiral towards the bottom four. While I think there's enough talent in this roster to realistically hang around the edge of the eight, Ricky Stuart coached sides have a knack for looking like the most miserable men on the planet when things aren't going well (I don't blame them) and the tough start could put some pressure on.
Most Important Player
Joseph Tapine by a mile. The only player at the club who is unarguably top five in their position, Tapine's ball carrying and second-phase play unlocks a lot of what the Raiders do well. I genuinely thought he'd be named as co-captain before Round 1, but Ricky must know that he doesn't need a C next to his name to be the star of my heart.
Trial Overreaction
Trial results mean nothing but there are certain things you can take from them and this year there was very little to like. Danny Levi emerging as the first choice hooker over Zac Woolford made me physically ill, while the lack of progression once again from former Turkish Terrier Emre Guler was infuriating to watch. I can't recall a year where the Raiders have looked worse in trials and still performed well in the season, so maybe if they come out firing in Round 1 I will genuinely believe that trials mean nothing.
Again, thanks to Jack. Follow him on Twitter @jackkcronin
CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN-BULLDOGS
Last Season: 12th - Missed Finals, 16pts, -192
Contributor: Ryan O’Connell (@RyanOak)
Key Signing
I realise right from the get go I’m cheating, but for me, it’s almost a dead heat between Viliame Kikau and Reed Mahoney.
Kikau’s size, skill and experience will bring an added dimension to the Bulldogs pack – already a strength for the team – while Mahoney will ensure the Dogs have a little more direction in attack, along with more options up their sleeve; things the team definitely needed.
Key Loss
With all due respect to the players departing the club, I’m not sure Dogs fans are crying themselves to sleep at night over anyone that’s left.
The one obvious and notable exception is Josh Jackson. The heart and soul of the club for a number of years, along with being a great player, Jackson’s shocking early retirement caught many people by surprise, and he does leave a slight hole in the team, from a leadership perspective. At times during the year, his absence will definitely be felt.
What Went Right in 2022?
After languishing at the bottom of the table for a few seasons, the Dogs made some progress last season. Both literally ‘up’ the ladder, and in terms of player development.
Matt Burton showed glimpses of legitimate superstar potential, and talent still wins premierships. So knowing they have a star in their five-eighth is certainly something to build around. Signing him to an extension was crucial, and easily the best thing that happened last year.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
You obviously watch your own team the most, and therefore identify their mistakes more readily, but my honest opinion is that the Bulldogs continued to make some of the worst mistakes on the fifth tackle of any club in the premiership.
It’s hard to build pressure when you can’t maintain that pressure with repeat sets on the opponent’s line, or even better, score points. Well you can’t apply that pressure or score those points when you take horrific options on the fifth tackle. And that’s what wrong last season. Often.
The Next Generation
He’s won a premiership, played Origin football, and represented his country, so it would be very easy to overlook the fact that Matt Burton is still just 22 years of age.
He’s not just the player you should be looking out for this season, but in many seasons to come.
Key Question
Is Kyle Flanagan the answer at halfback?
He kind of needs to be for 2023, because there aren’t many other options! But it’s the question that needs to be answered for 2024 and beyond. The Dogs have had an outstanding recruiting job over the last year or so, but halfback remains one of the most important positions in football, and it’s tough to win without a very good number 7.
I’m not sure anyone would label Flanagan as “very good”, so until he proves he can step up, or the Dogs get a new halfback, they won’t be premiership contenders.
Best Case Scenario
I still think the Dogs are missing some quality in the backline, and questions remain at halfback, but the Dogs should be aiming to make the bottom half of the top eight this season.
Best case scenario? Perhaps a sixth-place finish? That’s a stretch, but it’s probably the absolute highest they could possibly achieve.
Worst Case Scenario
Missing the eight would be pretty disappointing, but there’s some good teams in the competition and someone has to miss out.
So the worst case scenario is little to no progress – despite the off-season additions, and the Dogs finishing lower than 10th.
Most Important Player
Sorry to be lazy and mention him for the third time, but it’s Burton. He has the talent you can’t coach, and that can win you games. He’s a legitimate superstar-in-waiting, and is capable of doing things other players can only dream of. He has a super boot, excellent skills and a touch of class.
If he can improve his consistency and decision-making, he could lift the Dogs to heights they may not yet otherwise be ready for. He’s that good, and therefore our most important player.
Trial Overreaction
I don’t rate pre-season games in any sport. Hate them. Can’t stand them. Read nothing into them. Mainly because the one game I did watch, the Sharks pulled our pants down!
So here’s my one overreaction: Josh Reynolds may actually be a positive for the Dogs in 2023.
Again, thanks to Ryan. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOak
CRONULLA-SUTHERLAND SHARKS
Last Season: 2nd - Lost Semi Final 38-12 vs. SOU, 38pts, +209
Contributor: Michael (@SharksRcb)
Key Signing
Oregon Kaufusi comes in as the only major signing. He will replace the minutes Aiden Tolman/Andrew Fifita had but with more impact. The hope is they may spell Toby Rudolf a bit more too.
He played in the Eels grand final team and brings that experience. He signed so long ago im convinced the Eels forgot he was leaving and let others leave as well.
Key Loss
No key losses. Two older players retired. Fifita’s renaissance was fun but in the end it was time. Franklin Pele left but is yet to do anything. Luke Metcalf could be a guy when he isn't hurt.
Lachie Miller left late, he was probably going to play some firsts but not all that much.
Unlike last year the losses don't straight up make the club better. Andrew and Aiden were both great club guys and Lachie was rookie of the year.
Kade Dykes being hurt for the whole year sucks.
What Went Right in 2022?
Basically everything until the end.
Nicho Hynes and Matt Moylan combined above expectations and Hynes showed he is a good halfback. Cam McInnes had a really great season. Dale Finucane was exceptional until he hurt his ribs. Forwards did their job. Wingers finished well. Siosifa Talakai emerged as a great threat on the edge. Mostly it was all really great.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
I believe that Wade Graham coming back as a starter at Teig Wiltons expense actively hurt the left side attack for a number of weeks.
The lack of any opposition in the weeks leading into the semis allowed a bit of clunkiness to set in. They weren't tested at all and then lost both finals. Some of the finals preparation was obviously wrong.
Guys like Finucane should have been rested for the games leading up and Will Kennedy shouldn't have played finals week 1 if he wasn't ready to do things like tackle. The mid season loss of Sione Katoa was felt in the Cowboys game in week 1 finals. Tracey's not that guy. Had a bad game in that spot.
The Next Generation
Sam Stonestreet is a speedy winger who looks good. Kayal Iro in the centres looks like he could be something and played last year.
The forwards who debuted from last year, Jesse Colquhoun and Thomas Hazelton are well in the mix for spots this year. I believe Niwhai Puru, who we got from Penrith, may push Braydon Trindall as the backup half by years end. The dude we got from Newcastle, Max Bradbury looks like he's got the size to be a first grader but is very young.
Key Question
Can they take the next step? Or was is all a fluke and just the soft draw?
Best Case Scenario
Best case is the second first grade premiership for the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks.
Worst Case Scenario
Worst case is that they regress so far from last year and aren’t nearly as good as I think they are and end up in the lower half of the eight, if not miss the finals altogether.
Most Important Player
Nicholas Hynes easily. Guy won the Dally M. Plays in the most important position. Everything runs from him.
Trial Overreaction
No. They looked good enough. I think Hazeleton was the big winner from the trials. He looks like he can push for a bench spot. The "overreaction " would be that Wade Graham doesn't get picked much. That for mine is a good thing.
I would still like somebody in the squad to push Blayke Brailey.
Again, thanks to Michael. Follow him on Twitter @SharksRcb
GOLD COAST TITANS
Last Season: 13th - Missed Finals, 14 points, -205
Contributor: Anthony (@gc_anthony)
Key Signing
For me it is really hard to split Kieran Foran and Sam Verrills.
It is a credit to the club that they identified our lack of experience and talent in the spine, and they have recruited fantastically to fix these problem areas. Foran is going to add a senior voice and classy touch to the club to help take some of the pressure off of poor Tino.
Meanwhile Sammy Verrills will finally give us a genuine nine which we haven’t had since the Nathan Friend days, and also allows Erin Clark to go to 13 where he is best suited.
Key Loss
To be quite honest I think most of our losses were for the best as Kevin Proctor and Jarrod Wallace were, in all due respect, well past their best. However if I was to choose one person it would be Greg Marzhew.
Whilst his defence is shaky, he was a metre eater for us last year and knew how to find the line. Then again we did get a quality backup 9 in Chris Randall which will improve the overall depth of the squad so I can see what the club was thinking with the swap.
What Went Right in 2022?
Sadly not a lot went right last year as the club showed our lack of experience and mental toughness quite often. At times we looked like we could challenge the top sides as evident in round 1 vs Parra and our close loss to the Panthers.
Our attack looked incredible with AJ Brimson, Jayden Campbell and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui leading the charge but unfortunately for the Titans, we have to learn that there is two sides to rugby league and defence cannot be nonexistent like it was last season. Our lack of leadership was also a key issue as Tino (only 22 years old for the record) was left to try to lead a group of young guys when he himself is still learning to play in the NRL.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
Where do I begin with this…Going into 2022 I was very high on our chances, coming off the back of a finals series and the young guys having another year under the belt. Unfortunately that was not the case as we could not defend to save ourselves.
Losses against the Raiders and Broncos in particular where we were up by 20+ in both at halftime were hard to swallow and those two wins would’ve had us finishing around 11th. A perfect way to sum up the 2022 Titans was a dangerous footy side with ball in hand but absolutely no defence whatsoever to back it up.
The Next Generation
I think anybody who watched our two trials knows the answer to this straight away, it definitely has to be Alofiana Khan-Pereira. “Lofi” was the leading try scorer in the Queensland Cup last season and doesn’t look to be slowing down after scoring 6 tries in the 2 trials for the Titans.
With him on one side and Jojo Fifita on the other wing, we have plenty of speed to burn and a combination that resembles the days of Kevin Gordon and David Mead. I am also very keen to see how Klese Haas (second row and brother of Payne) and Keano Kini (fullback) go this season.
Key Question
One question I want to see answered for 2023 is - will the Titans improve both their mental toughness and defensive resolve or will we slip back into old habits?
With the addition of Foran and Verrills and also defensive coach Brett White from Canberra, there is no excuse for a lack of experience. Guys like David Fifita and AJ Brimson must be prepared to step up and join Tino in leading this club. Our attack has never been the issue but the team must learn how to defend and make better decisions under pressure.
Best Case Scenario
Being realistic, I think our best case scenario for 2023 would be to finish somewhere between 7th and 10th. In my opinion this season will be super close as a lot of rosters have also improved so there will be a huge logjam in the middle of the table.
However I think we have more upside and a better roster on paper than sides like the Bulldogs and Tigers so fingers crossed we can make it all click and go back to the finals (or at least go very close).
Worst Case Scenario
A worst case scenario for this season would be to once again finish in the bottom 4. With so much improvement with our recruitment and so much potential in the squad it would be a shame to implode again.
Most Important Player
Once again I am going to be a fence sitter and split this answer between both Tino and Kieran Foran. Tino is an obvious one as he is an Origin and International player who wears his heart on his sleeve and would no doubt die for the club.
Unfortunately last year he was saddled with the captaincy and the few senior players we had did not seem to assist him. This is where Foz comes in. He will be able to relieve a lot of the pressure from Tino in pressure situations and won’t be afraid to spray anyone who isn’t pulling their weight. It seems crazy to put such high hopes on a 32 year old five eighth with a chequered injury past however if he can stay healthy and play at least 20 games this season I think we are challenging for the 8.
Trial Overreaction
It is always hard to take too much away from trials especially as the first trial featured basically no regular first graders and the Dolphins were awful in our second trial.
A few takeaways I have is Khan-Pereira will score a hell of a lot of tries this year, Fifita looks to be improving in his leadership, Tanah Boyd has made that 7 jersey his own to start the year and Foran and Verrills will both lift the decision making of the side in crucial moments.
Again, thanks to Anthony. Follow him on Twitter @gc_anthony
MANLY-WARRINGAH SEA EAGLES
Last Season: 11th - Missed Finals, 20pts, -105
Contributor: Ella (@ellapk3)
Key Signing
Prior to the trials I would’ve struggled to answer this, but now I can’t split it between two! Kelma Tuilagi impressed big time in the trial he played in and I think the combo of him and Haumole Olakau’atu on the edges is going to be massive.
The other player I think is a key gain for us is actually Cooper Johns. We haven’t had much depth in our halves over the past few years but after his recent performances, I feel very confident with him being able to step in when needed.
Key Loss
Kieran Foran for sure. Not only was playing some great footy, but his experience and leadership will be missed big time in our squad this year.
What Went Right in 2022?
Not a lot! But if I had to pick, Reuben Garrick proved to be a good back up option at fullback after Tom Trbojevic got injured, which is always welcomed for some depth in that position.
Tolutau Koula debuting and making his spot in the first grade permanent was also a highlight - that kid has talent.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
What didn’t honestly! To sum it up quickly, a mixture of disconnect within the playing group, and injuries.
The Next Generation
Kaeo Weekes and Gordon Chan Kum Tong.
Both have come through our junior reps system, and have shown what they’re capable of during the trials. Kaeo can cover pretty much anywhere in the backs and will be super handy as a utility to start the season. Gordie is a nifty little hooker who I’m hoping will be promoted to our top 30 and eventually have a combo with Croker.
Key Question
Can Seibold actually coach! I’m always an optimist and really love what I’ve heard from Seibold so far. I truly believe he understands the DNA of the club and could be a long term successful coach for our club if it all translates onto the field - we shall see!
Best Case Scenario
Getting back into the top 8 is the absolutely minimum I want to see this year. Finishing 6th or higher will be a huge tick for me.
Worst Case Scenario
Tommy Turbo goes down injured again…
Even if hypothetically we managed to stay afloat and snag a top 8 spot without him, it’d just be such a kick in the guts for Tom and the whole supporter base not knowing where to go next.
Most Important Player
I can’t really say anyone else but Tommy T!
Trial Overreaction
This may be coming from a place where my team won the inaugural Pre-Season Challenge, however I think the trials were a good reflection of how teams are looking for the season ahead. In previous years, you’d watch trials and they’d feel vastly different to an actual NRL game, and sides would only field a handful of first grades who would play barely any minutes. But this year, almost every side played close to their starting 13 for solid chunks of time. Therefore, Manly will be back in the top 8.
Again, thanks to Ella. Follow her on Twitter @ellapk3
MELBOURNE STORM
Last Season: 5th - Lost Elimination Final 28-20 vs. CAN, 32pts, +247
Contributor: Em Sprouster (@emsprouster)
Key Signing
We never do big/key signings but I'm keen to see how Eliesa Katoa goes this year. I think he's got all the makings of a classic Storm signing that usually ends with 'How could (insert old club here) let him go??' In his first season at the Warriors he was doing some big minutes so I'm hoping he can improve on last year.
Key Loss
A lot has been said about what Melbourne has lost this year in terms of personnel. In fact, I think it's all I've heard about in relation to the Storm and season 2023. The obvious one is Brandon Smith, as he was a very useful player to have on a rotation and plugging holes in our shell of a forward pack at the back end of the year, that's the part we'll miss the most. With Christian Welch back and some new recruits in the forwards I'm hoping we've done enough to mitigate this.
What Went Right in 2022?
Not a lot, and we still finished comfortably in the eight.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
As above, practically everything. We had so many injuries that we got dangerously close to starting a backline of Tyran Wishart, Grant Anderson, Marion Seve, Young Tonumaipea and Dean Ieremia. Fuck me dead.
Don't even get me started on the forwards.
The Next Generation
I'd like to see Jack Howarth get a run this year, perhaps during Origin, provided he aims up in training and off the field. Jonah Pezet is another exciting junior but I think we're still a season or two off seeing him in first grade.
Key Question
Is this Bellamy's last year? (And if it is, how bad do the boys wanna do it for Bellza?)
Ed note: Bellamy has since said this is “probably his last year.” What that means is anyone’s guess.
Best Case Scenario
Premiership, baby.
Worst Case Scenario
A 5th to 8th place finish and not playing past week two of the finals. A dream for most, a nightmare for me...deal with it.
Most Important Player
I think the easy answer here is my boy Cameron Munster, but honestly, he's at a level now where he's pretty consistent week in week out, I don't need to worry.
So I want to attack this question from a different perspective; I think our most important player in the context of our lineup and 2023 is Ryan Papenhuyzen. It's vital he gets back on the field and that he's still as good as he was before. He's the key to us going all the way, otherwise our fullback options are too limited to make an impact when it matters.
Trial Overreaction
No, I'm not an idiot.
Again, thanks to Em. Follow her on Twitter (@emsprouster)
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Last Season: 14th - Missed Finals, 14pts, -290
Contributor: Harry Ramage (@harryramage)
Ed note: Harry does not conform to your archaic and pre-determined notions of “questions” and “answers.” He is his own writing man, you will accept what he does, but I’m not complaining, it’s an easier edit.
Rock Bottom
Life in general at times is about knowing your lot in life, and the Newcastle Knights reminded the NRL competition that their entire existence outside the ‘Andrew Johns era’ has been mediocre.
There had been promises of better days under Adam O’Brien, but Knights fans had the life sucked out of them in 2022 and the current squad has a lot of work to do to endear themselves to their faithful fans. Many of the games were over within 15 minutes, with several season ticket holders claiming it was the most miserable atmosphere they’d been a part of.
McDonald Jones Stadium was once a fortress, but they won just two games in the Steel City last year.
They conceded more than 40 points in eight games across the year, which is staggering to consider when you look back at their one-win 2016 season where they conceded 40 points on six occasions.
It is almost impossible to have a season as bad as the Knights did in 2016, but somehow the current crop managed to re-write the record books. How two teams finished below them will remain a great mystery.
The Year They Had To Have
Development isn’t always linear and many thought that after two 7th placed finishes, the club was in a spot to push further up the ladder. It couldn’t have gone worse.
Sometimes a team gets a small taste of success and they’re lead to believe they’re better than what they actually are. They thought the standards they had were high, but in reality there has to be another gear to hit to break through to contender status. This is exactly what happened to Newcastle.
Mitchell Pearce’s sudden departure in the 2021 offseason meant the Knights didn’t have a ball-dominant halfback to steer the side around the park.
While Pearce was past his best football, a lot of the Knights gameplan was built around him rightly or wrongly.
When Pearce played, the Knights won at 50.7% during his tenure as a whole and in 2021 they were 8-4 in his 12 appearances.
They were left to pick up the scraps and asked far too much of Anthony Milford and Adam Clune in that dominant playmaking role.
The signing of Jackson Hastings goes some way into replacing that style of halfback which got them consecutive Finals’ appearances, so stylistically the club has the player they crave for that role.
Why did the Knights pay the hefty price of trading away their 2022 Player Of The Year for Hastings? Kalyn Ponga.
Ponga is an enigma that we may never full wrap our heads around, but his best football at club level has come when he has fewer touches in a game.
He almost won the Dally M Medal as a 20-year old and it all came off the back of him playing exclusively on the left-hand side of the field.
The Supercoach-ification of the game has seen media and fans demand he touches the ball infinite times in a game, but Ponga has shown his style isn’t dominating the football. A player of his talents demands an enormous pay-packet, but the challenge is not getting him to change his game, it’s about the club getting the right puzzle pieces on team-friendly deals to complement the franchise star.
A player like Lachie Miller coming to the club as the first-choice fullback to allow Ponga to move to five-eighth is one of those moves. He showed in his limited chances with the Sharks he can be add value beyond his contract figure if given a chance. Athletic forwards like Jack Hetherington and Adam Elliott to try and get more speed in the mid-field is another example of the Knights trying to change some things around their best player. David Klemmer was terrific in his four-year stint with the Knights, but the one wart in his game was lack of ruck speed and at times it spoiled the following plays.
The Mental Game Within The Game
For all the changes in player personnel the club has made, the biggest change within the club has to be the mentality of the playing group.
Too often it is obvious at the ground or on the TV screen they aren’t willing to pay the price every time they walk onto the field. To not be physically and emotionally invested is just about the biggest crime an athlete can commit in the eyes of a fan, and for too long the Knights have turned their toes up when the going has gone against them.
The most important thing fans will want to see is if coach Adam O’Brien is able to get the best out of a playing group consistently.
O’Brien was an astute tactician during his time as an assistant at the Storm and Roosters, but can he get a group of men to play to their potential?
His tenure at the club has seen some terrific performances followed up by some genuine garbage. If he can’t get the playing group pulling in the same direction, club power brokers will send him packing. It is a career defining year for the coach.
Again, thanks to Harry. Follow him on Twitter (@harryramage)
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Last Season: 3rd - Lost Preliminary Final 24-20 vs. PAR, 36pts, +272
Contributor: “Staff Writers”
Key Signing
In terms of inbound players, the pairing of Jack Gosiewski and James Tamou hardly inspire visions of September glory and parades down the main drag in Townsville, so to avoid the cop out of picking one of them I’ll say the re-signing of boom young forward Jeremiah Nanai.
The runaway rookie of the year winner in 2022 who scored tries at a rate that matched PVLBall-era David Fifita, Nanai erupted from project edge forward to surefire Queensland and Australia representative. It was very important for the club to lock him down before he seriously tested the open market, good edge forwards can be the gamebreakers that turn a clunky attack into a well-oiled unit.
Key Loss
To be honest a lot of the losses from the tropics were the clearing out of some depth fodder with guys like Kane Bradley, Brendan Frei and Connelly Lemuelu, but I think the loss of Tom Gilbert will prove to be felt in the forward rotation.
Widely regarded as one of the Dolphins better signings in their inaugural spree, Gilbert debuted for Queensland in 2022 and established himself as a key cog of the Cowboys pack. He started 21 of 24 games for the Cowboys on the edge but I really like his versatility to be able to play middle as well.
The rise of Nanai makes losing Gilbert more palatable but premiership packs have a mix of styles at edge forward so Gilbert’s consistency will be sorely missed in north Queensland.
What Went Right in 2022?
Absolutely everything, to be mild about it.
After trudging to a miserable 15th in 2021, the Cowboys were a popular pick by many (including me) to be wooden spooners in 2022. The signings weren’t inspiring much confidence, Todd Payten was unproven, and there were question marks around his usage of Jason Taumalolo.
Well, the Cowboys developed into one of the premier backlines in the competition, and I actually thought Peta Hiku was sneakily one of the buys of the season given his form. What may have helped the most though was being forced to put Scott Drinkwater at fullback after an early season injury to Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. Drinkwater’s defence is non-existent, but his brilliance in attack tipped his effect into the positive.
Elsewhere, Chad Townsend silenced some doubters to provide direction to an otherwise young spine, guys like Reuben Cotter and Reece Robson emerged as legitimate contributors and Origin players (Cotter debuted for Queensland, Robson made the NSW extended squad), while Coen Hess had his best season in a while as part of a revamped middle forward rotation.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
You could argue losing a home prelim against an Eels side that notoriously struggles in hot weather is a pretty big blot on an otherwise flawless copybook but it’s hard to pinpoint too much negativity from the Cowboys season.
The Next Generation
It’s hard as a neutral observer to identify one here but if I had to nitpick I thought Kyle Feldt had a down year by his standards last year, and if that becomes a pattern then someone like Tom Chester could be in line for more first grade.
He debuted off the bench against Cronulla in Round 18 and while he’s predominantly a fullback at reserve level I don’t see him leapfrogging Drinkwater unless Payton does some whack shit and moves Scotty Hydrate to the halves, so Chester’s avenue to the top flight might be on the wing to start.
Key Question
Was last year a trend or an aberration?
Fairly or otherwise, the Cowboys (and Sharks) copped a lot of fraud chat for the strength (or relative lack thereof) of their schedule and the opponents they faced. You can only play what’s in front of you but I think there’s probably some validity to wondering just how good this Cowboys side actually is. They’re obviously not a spoon contender now and I doubt they repeat a third placed finish, so the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, which is boring but sorry.
Best Case Scenario
Last year wasn’t a fluke, the Cowboys solidify their spot in the upper echelon of the top eight, Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater take more steps forward and they finish top four again. I don’t think Grand Final is likely so I’ll say another honourable prelim exit.
Worst Case Scenario
Last year WAS a fluke.
Dearden stagnates and the forward pack, which many were worried was immobile and slow, is beaten off the park more often than not, sending the Cowboys tumbling back down to the scrap for the finals and likely outside the eight.
Most Important Player
Maybe unconventional but to me I think Reuben Cotter is the heart and soul of this team.
A slightly undersized middle forward but with a motor for days, he’s atypical of the rest of the oversized Cowboys pack with his speed and mobility.
The more obvious answer is still Jason Taumalolo, and where he goes generally the Cowboys follow.
Trial Overreaction
I mean, no.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Last Season: 4th - Lost Grand Final 28-12 vs. PEN, 34pts, +119
Contributor: Mary K (@LadiesWhoLeague)
Key Signing
The Eels were relatively quiet when it came to signing new players for 2023, but our key signing is absolutely Josh Hodgson. With the departure of Reed Mahoney there was a big hole to fill and provided that Hodgson can stay fit, I’m confident that he can fill that hole.
I’m also really excited to see what J’maine Hopgood can do.
Key Loss
Oh where to start…
Parramatta lost many good players at the end of last year for a variety of different reasons, but seeing Reed Mahoney in a Bulldogs jersey is going to sting for a very long time, as is seeing Isaiah Papali’i in a Wests Tigers jersey.
What Went Right in 2022?
A lot went right for Parramatta in 2023, but if I had to call out one player, it would be Shaun Lane. He had a break out year in 2022 and his combination with Dylan Brown was a real key to Parramatta’s success.
The Eels will be without Lane for the opening weeks of the competition due to injury, but I’m hoping Lane and Brown pick up exactly where they finished last year.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
The Grand Final.
In all honesty, Penrith were the best team last year and on Grand Final day Parramatta were beaten by a better team, but Parramatta had managed to beat Penrith during the regular season or at least go with them. This wasn’t the case on Grand Final day where Penrith simply dominated the Eels. It was over within 15 minutes.
If Parramatta had played their best footy that day they may not have won, but it would have been a lot closer than what we saw take place.
The Next Generation
One player that I am really excited about is Toni Mataele who has joined the Eels from the Bulldogs. He is a back rower who really caught my eye during the trials.
Key Question
If this had been 2022, my key question would have been ‘can Parramatta get past week 2 of the Finals’. That question was answered with a resounding yes.
My big question for this year, and the one that is key to our season, is ‘can Josh Hodgson stay fit for the whole year.’
Best Case Scenario
Best case absolutely has to be going one better and winning the Grand Final.
Worst Case Scenario
A real regression from last year and missing the Top 8.
Most Important Player
This is a really tough one because Parramatta is a team that doesn’t really have one ‘star player’. We have very good players across the park. You could absolutely make a case for a Mitch Moses or Dylan Brown, but given the importance of the hooker and a lack of depth in that position, it really is key that Josh Hodgson stays fit this year.
Trial Overreaction
Even though trials mean nothing, I still got super excited seeing the Eels on my screen this year. That excitement quickly turned to despair when Shaun Lane got injured.
Again, thanks to Mary. Follow her on Twitter @LadiesWhoLeague
PENRITH PANTHERS
Last Season: 1st (4th Minor Premiership in club history) - Won Grand Final 28-12 vs. PAR (4th Premiership in club history), 42pts, +306
Contributor: Ben Quagliata (@bensquag)
Key Signing
I would’ve loved this section to be about how we’re retaining our entire back to back squad until they all grow old and we’re all sitting out on the back deck playing bridge but since that’s not happening I’ll say Luke Garner, almost by default.
Zac Hosking and Jack Cogger are lower level first graders on middling teams, nothing more than depth on Penrith, but Garner has massive shoes to fill given the departure of Viliame Kikau. I’ve been on the record in the past as saying Garner is a rather vanilla back rower, and he certainly hasn’t got the sauce and flair of Kikau, but he is a very good hole runner and decent athlete on the edge, although, given how far Kikau’s defence progressed, the regression back to Garner could be stark.
Key Loss
Viliame Kikau is obviously a key loss but I’m of the opinion that paying a nearly 30 year old edge forward the money he was asking was a luxury too rich for Penrith’s blood.
The obvious answer is Api Koroisau and the future without him absolutely terrifies me. Before Api arrived in 2020 Penrith were a middling young side with enormous potential but no tangible results, and a lot of the criticism lay at the feet of an utterly uninspiring mix of dummy halves.
Penrith haven’t really had an elite nine since Luke Priddis, save for some serviceable years from Kevin Kingston and Peter Wallace, but the merry go round of Sione Katoa, Wayde Egan and that random year of Mitch Rein was dismal before Koroisau returned to the club after leaving for Manly at the end of 2015.
Koroisau’s sharpness, service and unpredictability at hooker gave the Panthers a level to their attack that allowed the likes of Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai the space to be at their best, so Koroisau will be a huge loss. His ability to identify out of position defenders through the ruck is a craft forged through years on the job, something neither Mitch Kenny nor Soni Luke have.
What Went Right in 2022?
Oh just a dominant Grand Final performance over our bitter rivals, so nothing too spectacular.
On a more serious note, Dylan Edwards emerged from underrated to widely recognised as one of the better fullbacks in the game in 2022, capped off by his Clive Churchill performance in the Grand Final. Seeing the narrative around Edwards flip after a hellish couple of years around 2018-2019 was heart-warming.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
I mean, as a NSW fan it would’ve been nice to see the boys grab the Blues jersey by the horns and ram home a series win over Queensland, but I’ll trade Origin success for a club premiership any day of the week and anyone who says otherwise is a fool.
So to answer the question, not much.
I got sick at Magic Round actually, that sucked.
The Next Generation
The Panthers have a ridiculous stable of outside back talent coming through that I can’t highlight just one.
Sunia Turuva is the first cab off the rank. He’ll play a lot this season you would think, after Taylan May suffered a torn ACL in the World Club Challenge. A fullback by trade, Turuva debuted for Fiji before Penrith, and has starred for the Bati in mid year tests and the World Cup. He’ll get first crack at the vacant wing spot.
Looking further afield, with Stephen Crichton off to the Dogs next year, Thomas Jenkins is another rangy centre/wing combo coming through. Jenkins debuted in the last round last year when Penrith took the kids to Townsville, and has rare size and athletic ability that’s missing in the rest of the backline.
He might never play for Penrith given the depth but Isaiah Iongi is another fullback with rep potential (he played for Queensland in the underage Origin last year). I wouldn’t be surprised if him and Turuva fight to be the long term succession plan for Edwards whenever that happens.
Jack Cole is a Burton-type utility (and yes he wears headgear), and can play in the halves or in the centres, but he’s probably a while away still, although he did debut in that Cowboys game too.
Lastly, the longest play is the presumed hooker of the future in Ryley Smith. This kid has been earmarked for a while now, a nuggety rake but with issues around his service that he’ll have ample chance to iron out in NSW Cup. As an aside, he also represented Australian schoolboys in cricket as well as rugby league.
Key Question
How will the Panthers attack fare going from Koroisau to Mitch Kenny?
I love Mitch Kenny but his style of play reminds me more of Ray Stone than Api Koroisau. He started the Grand Final and played the opening stanza in the middle, helping grind Parramatta to a pulp before Api subbed in and took control. We’ve seen how this Penrith side attacks with a lower tier hooker in 2019 (although Jarome Luai wasn’t yet the full time five eighth), so there’s a very real chance the attack takes a step back.
I’m not as worried about the defence, that should be as rock solid as ever.
Best Case Scenario
People have to stop leaning on teams that were good before they were born and recognise Penrith 2020-2023 as the greatest club side of all time as they march to their fourth successive Grand Final and third successive Premiership.
Worst Case Scenario
Outside of injury, I think a worst case is the attack stagnates and the team is forced into a grind it out style one too many times, resulting in mass fatigue in September as their multi-year run catches up to them.
I don’t see a scenario where they miss the eight, but a worst case looks like a 5th place finish and a Week…2 finals exit. I can’t bring myself to say Week 1.
Most Important Player
The obvious boring answer is Nathan Cleary. The best halfback in the game with the best kicking game.
But I am not boring, so I’m going to proffer a player I haven’t even mentioned yet,
Isaah Yeo.
Yeo is at worst a top two lock forward in the NRL, we know what he’s about. An incredibly mobile, rangy middle forward with silky ball skills and a lethal offload, I think the loss of Koroisau will force a lot of the burden of that lost creativity through the middle to fall on Yeo’s shoulders.
If Yeo can lift to another level and help cover some of Koroisau’s creativity then I think the Panthers can live with the Mitch Kenny-Soni Luke hooker carousel with little pain.
I haven’t even mentioned guys like James Fisher-Harris, Liam Martin or Brian To’o in this preview, such is our depth.
Trial Overreaction
Sign Jack Welsby.
Thanks to me. You can follow me on Twitter @bensquag
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Last Season: 7th - Lost Preliminary Final 32-12 vs. PEN, 30pts, +130
Contributor: Matt Bungard (@TheMattBungard)
Key Signing
There isn’t one. Souths had the least turnover of any club, and while there are a couple of players from the lower grades who are tipped for big things in the future, nobody that was brought in externally is expected to feature prominently in 2023.
Key Loss
As mentioned above, it’s been an off-season with very little turnover. Prop Mark Nicholls steadily improved with each year he spent at the club, and was a key part of the rotation in both the 2022 season as well as 2021’s Grand Final charge. The Rabbitohs’ loss is the Dolphins gain, but if your biggest (and only) loss is a bench forward, things look pretty good.
What Went Right in 2022?
The Rabbitohs timed their run in the finals to perfection, were close to fully healthy by the time we got to September, breezed past both the Roosters and Sharks in finals games before suffering their annual season-ending loss to Penrith.
There were plenty of concerns about whether or not Lachlan Ilias could fill Adam Reynolds’ shoes, and while the young halfback was nowhere near as effective as his predecessor, he didn’t need to be - but did show some nice flashes in wins against the Storm and Roosters, particularly.
Cody Walker bounced back from a slow start to have another fantastic year, Damien Cook looks like he’s showed no signs of slowing down, and once Latrell Mitchell came back from his hamstring troubles, Souths were a force to be reckoned with.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
They had to play Penrith. If not for the existence of Ivan Cleary’s team, Souths would likely have one, if not multiple titles across the last three seasons, with each campaign ending in a defeat to the Panthers.
A fast start in the prelim had the Bunnies riding their luck, with Penrith having roughly 15 tries disallowed or bombed as they were held scoreless for more than half an hour to start the game.
Despite every bounce of the ball going Souths’ way in the first 35 minutes, they managed to bungle it completely and turn a 12-0 lead into a tied game at half time - and the second 40 minutes was only ever going to go one way.
There were moments in that match where they needed to be more pragmatic and careful, and try to navigate their way safely to half time, but some ill-advised passes were thrown, and the rest is history. They need to be smarter in big moments.
The Next Generation
Josiah Karapani has some fantastic games in the NSW Cup last year and would likely be the first young gun given a chance should a spot in the backline open up.
Terrell Kalo Kalo is another who can player either centre or fullback and has been highly-regarded for a while, having played SG Ball alongside Joseph Suaalii and Davvy Moale - the latter having enjoyed a run in first grade for Souths last year, and a likely candidate to be a leader of that forward pack in the future.
Key Question
The term ‘big game player’ is idiotic almost all of the time. Latrell Mitchell has won plenty of big games for both club and state, and, even despite his intercept, Cody Walker was Souths’ best in the 2021 decider.
Despite my personal beliefs on that, it’s an accusation that doesn’t go away because this sport, and sport in general, is a wretched hate-filled cycle of negativity where any club that loses a big game or player that plays poorly are branded ‘failures’ and ‘frauds’ respectively. I hate it.
But hopefully, when Souths win the title, I never have to hear some moron ask “Can Latrell, Cody, and Cook do it in big games?”
Best Case Scenario
With Penrith, Melbourne and Parramatta all weaker this year, Souths finally rise to the top of the pile and lift the trophy - beating the Roosters in the grand final.
Worst Case Scenario
Latrell Mitchell gets injured/suspended at the pointy end of the season again, and a futile march into the finals ends the same way as the past few years. It’s not worth entertaining scenarios where the team misses the finals entirely as it would take a ridiculous amount of misfortune for that to happen.
Most Important Player
There’s two contenders; either captain and star forward Cameron Murray, or fullback Latrell Mitchell - I’ll go with the latter, purely because the team’s forward depth is so good. As fantastic as Murray is, Souths could get by in a pinch with, say, Jai Arrow playing lock. We saw what happened in big games when Mitchell wasn’t there - and it wasn’t pretty most of the time.
Trial Overreaction
Not really - they played the Dragons at pretty much full strength and it went basically exactly how you’d expect.
Again, thanks to Matt. Follow him on Twitter @TheMattBungard
ST. GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Last Season: 10th - Missed Finals, 26 points, -100
Contributor: Justin Davies (@JustDavies90)
Key Signing
The fact that Ben Hunt decided to stick around this rabble for another few seasons and hopefully help us avoid the spoon.
Key Loss
Losing Cody Ramsey with his health issues means that the Dragons fullback position is now back under a huge question mark. We will probably have five guys play in that position by the end of 2023.
What Went Right in 2022?
When it ended.
Also the time we beat the Roosters and Souths.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
Everything. The "Moneyball" signings mostly flopped and the Dragons remained a boring team to watch - not scoring much and having totals put on them - and there isn't much more to convince fans that 2023 will be much better.
The Next Generation
Treigh Stewart looked good in the trials and hopefully the Dragons might actually take care of their youth for once.
Key Question
When will Anthony Griffin be fired so he can go join Sky News as a raving lunatic.
Best Case Scenario
Ben Hunt leads this merry band of mediocre boys to a mid table finish and fighting for eighth spot.
Worst Case Scenario
Everything that everyone has predicted comes true. The Dragons just drift through the season, losing a lot of games and pick up the first spoon as a joint venture.
Most Important Player
Ben Hunt. #GoDozer.
Trial Overreaction
We might never win a game again.
Again, thanks to Justin. Follow him on Twitter @JustDavies90
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Last Season: 6th - Lost Elimination Final 30-14 vs. SOU, 32pts, +201
Contributor: Dean Rob (@drob777)
Key Signing
The Cheese (Brandon Smith for those under a rock) of course. He hasn’t been in form for the last couple of years but at his best, he will add an element of threat from dummy half that we haven’t had for years. Honestly, we haven’t had someone that could bust the line open from dummy half through sheer speed and strength since Craig Wing.
Key Loss
On his day, Sio Siua Taukeiaho was the best prop in the game. We will miss his versatility, his ability to get our sets started on the front foot and his ability to play big minutes if needed.
What Went Right in 2022?
Once Robbo finally pulled the trigger on switching sides with Luke Keary and Sam Walker, we looked like a different team. Keary went back to his natural running game and Walker had the confidence to play off of instinct and came up with some cracking performances.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
It took us more than half of the season to get going and by then, it was too late. Combine that with another season full of injuries, we were always going to struggle to make an impact in the finals.
The Next Generation
A few exciting players coming up through the ranks. Joseph Suaalii moving into the centres could be devastating for teams.
Egan Butcher should get a lot more game time this year and he has huge potential, especially in his passing and second phase play. Plus, we should be blooding more of the young guys like Siua Wong, who is an absolute beast of a human being.
Key Question
Can we become an attacking threat inside the opp 20? For the last 2 years we have not evolved, have been very clunky and very predictable. We relied a lot on the Joey Manus of the team to pull off something individually. I’d like to see a bit more creativity in our set plays.
Best Case Scenario
On paper, we have the best team in the comp. Naturally, the best case is to win another premiership.
Worst Case Scenario
Besides having another injury riddled season, I’d say missing the top 4 again.
Most Important Player
This year I believe it is Luke Keary. Part of the reason why our attack has been predictable is because he hasn’t been able to string two solid seasons together. If he stays on the park and gains the confidence to run with the ball like he did during our golden years, we are golden.
Trial Overreaction
The next 6 months are actually just a bunch of trials to prepare for next year’s pre season challenge.
Again, thanks to Dean. Follow him on Twitter @drob777
THE DOLPHINS
Last Season: Running around QCup somewhere?
Contributor: Brien Seeney (@NRLPhysio)
Key Signing
Isaiya Katoa - future 7 time Dally M winner.
Key Loss
Christian Welch - should've thrown the cheque book at him to captain the club.
What Went Right in 2022?
We won the license to be the 17th team in the NRL.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
Pretty much everything else.
The Next Generation
Mason Teague - going to be a gun lock forward in years to come.
Key Question
Can the Lee cousins' Origin magic transfer over to the NRL regular season?
Best Case Scenario
Wayne accepts quickly he needs to blood the exciting youngsters (Katoa, Valynce Te Whare, Teague etc etc) rather than roll out JAG's.
Worst Case Scenario
The average age of our starting 13 players all year is 30+.
Most Important Player
Valynce Te Whare.
Trial Overreaction
Milford should see out his contract in Queensland Cup.
Again, thanks to Brien. Follow him on Twitter @nrlphysio
WARRIORS
Last Season: 15th - Missed Finals, 14pts, -292
Contributor: “Staff Writers”
Key Signing
The Warriors have brought in a ton of what I would call respectable first grade talent but no one really separates themselves from the pack. If I had to pick one I’d lean towards Marata Niukore.
I’m a huge fan of Niukore’s versatility to play edge forward and out in the centres, and I’m sure you could even play him at lock in a pinch of desperation. I do also think the addition of Mitch Barnett, while not the guy I would’ve chased when preaching “culture reset”, helps shore up a weak forward pack, and I like that Webster has named him in the middle rather than on an edge.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad returns home but his end in Canberra was unceremonious so I’m a little lower on him than I should be, while Te Maire Martin is a useful pickup after a surprisingly effective season in Brisbane.
Key Loss
Without a doubt it’s Reece Walsh.
Walsh was one of the bright sparks in an otherwise miserable Warriors team last season, with his electrifying speed and skill at the back. Losing him is a massive blow for a Warriors spine that has more questions than answers.
The word “diva” gets thrown around too much in modern sport when an athlete displays a modicum of personality, and Walsh got slapped with the tag at times, especially given how he originally left Brisbane demanding first grade playing time. From what I saw of Walsh, he was engaged and committed to the Warriors while over there, the peak being him bellowing into the walkie talkie to the coach to get him back on the field.
Guys like Euan Aitken, Jack Murchie, Eli Katoa, Ben Murdoch-Masila and Matt Lodge were all perfectly competent first grade footballers but I don’t think the Warriors will be losing too much sleep over losing any of them, for various reasons.
What Went Right in 2022?
Not a hell of a lot.
Being able to return home to New Zealand after almost three full seasons away the only real highlight in a season of unchartered misery.
I guess avoiding the spoon was nice.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
Just about everything?
Being yanked around hubs in regional Australia was a nightmare start even before Nathan Brown submarined the season and effectively forced his way out under the guise of not wanting to relocate to New Zealand, which was kind of an inevitability, no?
Being unable to keep Reece Walsh around town long term the death knell.
The Next Generation
Luke Metcalf is a young half the Warriors picked up from the Sharks, a player who Cronulla fans seemed to be pretty high on as a prospect. I don’t think he’ll play much first grade this year though unless Andrew Webster really throws caution to the winds amidst another lost season and begins preparations for 2024 in, say, June.
That being said, he is already 24 and with only 7 first grade games under his belt, 5 of which were off the bench, he’s running out of time in the NRL cycle to cement his place as a first grade footballer.
There’s also a bit of hype around a front row prospect, Valingi Kepu, who is on the top 30 squad through 2024. He’s previously played in Queensland Cup for Redcliffe and might be an option later in the season.
Key Question
Is Andrew Webster immune to the “good assistant bad coach” curse?
If history is anything to go by, the general rule is assistant coaches at successful teams don’t necessarily turn into good head coaches. Penrith have had all their assistants poached in the last few years, and while both Webster and Cameron Ciraldo are unknown, the trend wasn’t pretty for Trent Barrett.
Webster does have a colourful and diverse rugby league path that has taken him through Penrith, the Wests Tigers, Parramatta, Hull and…Connecticut of all places. Most importantly though, he was previously a Warriors assistant under Andrew McFadden in 2015 and 2016.
Having someone at the helm who has been there before and knows the club is a marked improvement over the prior administration, although it is admittedly the lowest of bars.
Best Case Scenario
Shaun Johnson has a mini-renaissance, their forward pack hits its ceiling and this team is challenging for the lower half of the top eight.
Granted, this is maybe the absolute extreme best case scenario.
Worst Case Scenario
Shaun Johnson continues to regress, the rest of the spine is nothing more than a hodgepodge of middling talent, the forward pack is shuffled constantly and a rookie full time coach is in over his head as the Warriors march to their first ever wooden spoon.
Most Important Player
Tohu Harris and Addin Fonua-Blake are critically important to the Warriors but, rightly or wrongly, it’s hard to look past Shaun Johnson.
He’s well beyond the days of being the best player on the team, but considering the presumed spine around him, a lot will fall on Johnson to provide a semblance of the leadership and ingenuity that endeared him to footy fans the nation over.
Trial Overreaction
Hell no.
WESTS TIGERS
Last Season: 16th - Missed Finals (1st Wooden Spoon in club history*), 10 points, -327
*obviously as a joint venture
Contributor: Simon (@simon_il97)
Key Signing
Api Koroisau - he’s the best player at the most important position and he’s replacing an absolute potato.
Key Loss
Jackson Hastings I guess is a loss, but I don’t think anyone’s too upset about it. Everyone else bar Luke Garner is a reserve grader.
What Went Right in 2022?
The club’s recruitment and retention strategies, as well as finally biting the bullet and sacking Michael Maguire.
What Went Wrong in 2022?
Pretty much everything on field - it was the culmination of years of neglect with the roster and coaching.
The Next Generation
There’s a bunch of young guys I’m really excited about.
Fonua Pole, Shawn Blore, Junior Tupou and Justin Matamua are probably the ones who’ll get the most opportunity this year.
There’s a very real chance John Bateman isn’t a starter when he’s fit.
Key Question
Defence. We’ll be way better offensively which is really exciting but defence was atrocious last year and our edges do not have a good reputation on that end.
Best Case Scenario
Second week of finals.
I think we can give things a big shake this year if things go to plan, but I don’t think we have enough genuine game breakers to go that deep in the finals.
Worst Case Scenario
Shawn Blore re-injuring his ACL, Isaiah Papali’i agitating for an early release and another bottom 4 finish.
Most Important Player
Api easily. He was made captain for a reason. His ability to bring guys on to the ball is going to make such a difference to our go forward.
Trial Overreaction
I mentioned it earlier, Shawn Blore is going to be an absolute monster on the right edge.
Again, thanks to Simon. Follow him on Twitter @simon_il97
***
A huge thanks to everybody who contributed to this mammoth NRL season preview. Be sure to follow them on Twitter if you don’t already, and remember to #TalkTheGameUp.
Let’s gone rugba leeg.
