One Week Early: Panthers vs. Storm
All year long we were being fed the same narrative from the media. The entire NRL season was just one extended prologue to the eventual final showdown, Penrith vs. Melbourne v2, winner takes all.
How quickly the turntables.
To tell you the truth, the constant media beat up surrounding the fabricated rivalry between these two sides has grown rather tiresome in its short but bright existence. Penrith and Melbourne, historically, aren’t rivals. Just because they contested a grand final not 12 months ago and have been the two best teams in a statistically atypical era, it doesn’t create an intense hatred, rivalry or battle mentality any different to a regular fixture.
Prosperity ≠ enmity.
On the face of it, these two teams have come from polar opposite ends of the spectrum to meet at the same destination.
On one hand you have Melbourne, a historically dominant franchise ushering in a new era of almost ho-hum success and triumph. Gone are the days of Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk. Instead, you only have rep stars like Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr, Brandon Smith, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant, to only name a few.
Across the Murray River up north you have the perpetual potential proponents of Penrith. A team who has extended and then released more notable talent than I care to remember. They combined that fabled junior nursery with incredibly fortuitous circumstances to build a powerhouse that just so happens to marry the unhinged current rule set perfectly. Isaah Yeo and James Fisher-Harris, for instance, have gone from serviceable but uninspiring first graders, to bona fide best in their position calibre household names.
What makes the latest edition of this fabled and storied rivalry (r/sarcasm) so inherently interesting is the contrasting build ups each team has had, not only coming into this game, but compared to the 2020 decider as well.
In 2021, after a shaky (for Melbourne) start, the Storm scorched the earth of any challenger that dared lie before them in combat. Only a herculean effort from the Parramatta Eels in Round 24 stopped the Melbourne outfit from running the table from Round 4 to the Finals. All this while having to manage key injuries to important members like Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen, a shuffling forward pack, and a second straight season of being away from AAMI Park.
Melbourne have suffered the same turbulence as every other team this season. The difference? They went through it last season, and have been going through it their entire existence. In a classic new money vs. old money analogy, these two teams fit the mould scarily well.
Melbourne have been affected by Origin every season since the asteroid ended the Cretaceous period. They know how to handle the rep period without their brightest stars, and how to navigate with a hodgepodge of depth guys and Queensland Cup heroes. The Storm organisation is frustratingly adept at identifying depth in places everyone else ignores, and boy does it pay dividends during the middle of the year.
Penrith are like the family in Here Come The Habibs.
A humble family from suburban Sydney who have come into a fortune so quickly they don’t know what to do with it, and proceed to throw money at the most ridiculous and mundane things, because they can. This isn’t a criticism of the team, it’s just what the changed landscape has created. But you have to admit, a team that was 10th in 2019 with largely the same core skyrocketing to legitimate contention in the space of one offseason reeks of Powerball.
In a way, Melbourne’s prep hasn’t been too different from 12 months ago. Again they cruised through the regular season and the finals (having a couple more losses along the way sure), before ultimately sweeping aside a wide-eyed Penrith outfit whose desperate scramble late made the scoreline more respectable than perhaps it ought to have been.
Melbourne, under Craig Bellamy, have been that calming aura of process, patience and inevitability. That’s why that puts them at such odds with their “rivals” and eventual foes on Saturday, Penrith.
The Panthers rode the wave of 2020. A shock win against the Roosters before the COVID lockdown contributed to some early feelgood factor out west, but no one could’ve seen what would eventuate. One draw and one loss all season, both of which came before Round 5, led into a regular season campaign that stands as the greatest of all time from a win percentage perspective.
Come finals, though, the signs of youth and occasion began to seep in. A roaring rally got them past the experienced Roosters in Week 1 before outlasting a strong Souths outfit to book their spot in the Grand Final. While the Penrith side of the last two years has always had a strong defence, that shine in attack began to flicker in the moments it mattered most. That was never more evident in the decider, where a brutal first half shattered any hopes of a first title in 17 years for the mountain men.
The Panthers went into the 2020 decider brimming with confidence and, sure, arrogance, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing in professional sports, when used right. The 2021 Panthers could not be further from this valhalla.
Penrith are beaten, bruised and broken. Riding into the finals having tied for first with Melbourne (but with an inferior for and against), the expectation was that they would continue the momentum they had seemingly rediscovered after a shaky period near the end of the season. Instead, not only were they humbled by Souths, but they then had to back up and face a stern and confident Parramatta side, barely emerging from that battle, but definitely not usncathed.
This Penrith side is carrying injuries to key men. Brian To’o, the competition’s best metre eater, missed the semi final with an ankle injury and is again doubtful to play. Viliame Kikau suffered a gash to his leg, Dylan Edwards has a leg complaint, while star half Cleary has a less than optimal shoulder.
While the 2020 Panthers walked tall, the 2021 Panthers are on gurneys and Zimmer frames. It’s not quite DEFCON 1, but the alarms are certainly wailing. The group galvanisation can only go so far after a sterling defensive effort against the Eels. Penrith, deep down, wouldn’t have accounted for this extra week of mileage on their bodies.
Melbourne have been sitting back in a Sunshine Coast resort watching their eventual opponents beat themselves into a pulp, suffering through two gruelling and physical encounters.
It’s not last chance saloon for Penrith, not by any stretch. Their 6 NSW Origin representatives are all 26 and younger, with the exception of Api Koroisau at 29. Their spine has been together for a decade and will continue onwards.
But there has to be a seed of worry that this team as built is the best chance to win it all. Penrith will lose a lot of depth next year. Matt Burton, Brent Naden and newly-minted Tevita Pangai Jr will all head to Belmore, while Queensland back rower Kurt Capewell will head home to the Broncos. Where last year, Penrith wore the Iron Man suit, this year they resemble the Red Priestess without the necklace (sorry for the GoT reference).
Melbourne will also lose key depth next year, sure, with Addo-Carr heading to the Bulldogs as well, while Nicho Hynes and Dale Finucane take their talents to the Shire, but there’s nowhere near the level of panic and concern for the Storm. They’ve had the best preparation they could possibly ask for. A week off, Ryan Papenhuyzen back to something resembling the racehorse we know he is, and a fully fit Josh Addo-Carr to come back in.
All year we’ve been fed the narrative of Panthers vs. Storm part two. And like all good movie franchises, the sequel looks set to suck.
Beyond the Fence Score Prediction: Melbourne 26 def. Penrith 12
